Civic Stress Index (CSI)

Real-time measurement of structural stress in American institutions. Updated daily at 00:00 UTC.

Last Update: 2026-06-22 18:20:54 UTC

What CSI Measures

The CSI combines four indicator streams:

1. Economic Pressure - CPI inflation, wage gaps, unemployment
2. Institutional Trust - Approval ratings, polarization measures
3. Event Signals - Protest activity (GDELT), conflict events (ACLED)
4. Supply Chain Health - Logistics indices, supply pressures

Seven Formulas

The dashboard displays CSI calculated by 7 validated formulas:

• BM2-T7: VAR-Granger Reduced-Form Linearization
• BM2-T11: Loss-Averse Hawkes (Reference-Dependent)
• BM3-T14: Multiplicative Threshold-Gated Product
• BM7-T14: Bayesian Hierarchical Regime-Switching
• BM9-T1: Citation-Locked Conservatism
• BM10-T5: Regime-Specific Annual Multipliers
• BM1-T13: Antagonistic-Suppressor MS-VAR

Score Bands

• 0-20: Stable baseline
• 21-40: Low stress
• 41-60: Guarded / Elevated stress
• 61-75: High stress
• 76-90: Severe institutional strain
• 91-100: Critical systemic stress

Data Sources

All data from free public sources:

• BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
• GDELT (Global Events)
• ACLED (Conflict Events)
• Congress.gov (Legislative Data)
• RealClearPolitics (Approval Ratings)

Note: CSI is experimental. Use for trend analysis, not crisis prediction.